'Change' is more than a six-letter word

It defined the results of the Iowa caucuses Thursday night.

Both anti-establishment candidates won their respective party caucuses in Iowa. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) reaped the benefits of a record turnout of more than 239,000 participants in the Democratic caucuses throughout Iowa, including capturing a shocking 57 percent of caucus-goers between the ages of 17 and 29, according to entrance polls.

Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-Ark.), a former Baptist minister, won the Republican caucuses by nine percentage points over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, due in large part to 60 percent of the participants identifying themselves as "evangelical," according to entrance polls.

Both candidates have defined their campaigns on the theme of "change," with Obama advocating unity over partisan rancor and Huckabee emphasizing the need for Republicans to revolutionize the base of their party.

“They said this country was too divided, too disillusioned to ever come together around a common purpose,” Obama said in his victory speech Thursday night in Des Moines. “But on this January night, at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn’t do.”

The effects of the victories by Obama and Huckabee reverberated through the campaign immediately. Two Democratic hopefuls, Sens. Joe Biden (Del.) and Chris Dodd (Conn.) dropped out of the race. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.), the candidate seen as representing the establishment, finished third right behind former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.), and is now reeling from the effects of losing her role as the assumed-frontrunner for the nomination.

Both Clinton and Obama far outspent Edwards in Iowa, but Edwards focused his efforts almost solely in Iowa, spending the four years since his vice-presidential candidacy building an organization there, feeding the notion that if he didn't win in Iowa, his candidacy would be finished. Edwards vowed to fight on into New Hampshire Thursday night.

Romney, who had invested heavily in Iowa in both money and time, saw his commanding lead in the state shrink by a surging Huckabee as more and more Iowa voters found him a credible enough candidate. Romney aired many advertisements attacking Huckabee, especially on the issue of illegal immigration, and some pundits believe that Iowa caucus-goers rebuked him for it, because candidates who have gone negative in Iowa historically do not perform well on caucus night.

Romney has also invested heavily in New Hampshire, and his candidacy may be over if he does not win the primary there.

Huckabee's victory in Iowa is likely to cause a bounce in his standing in New Hampshire, but it is unknown how large the bounce will be, since New Hampshire voters are far more secular than their Iowan counterparts.

Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, who finished a dismal sixth in the caucuses, even being soundly defeated by fringe candidate Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.), had ignored Iowa for the entire campaign, instead focusing on the larger states whose primaries are mostly on Super-Duper Tuesday, Feb. 5, a strategy that carries high risks, according to political analysts.

All of the fallout of the Iowa caucuses turns around quickly in the sprint to the New Hampshire primary, which occurs on Tuesday, Jan. 8.

Stay tuned.

Going to New Hampshire

The University is traveling to New Hampshire to experience the weekend ahead of the first presidential primary in the 2008 election, which occurs on January 8.
Students will be accompanied by faculty, and they will take part in campaign events involving both Democratic and Republican candidates, according to a University statement.
"New Hampshire is one of the most important battlegrounds in each electoral cycle, and 2008 will prove especially so," said political science Professor David Green, who is organizing the trip, in the statement.
Green took students to New Hampshire twice in 2004.
"Because the state is so important, and because it is so small and so close, Hofstra students have the unique opportunity to observe first-hand the ‘retail politics’ of campaigning in New Hampshire coffee shops, living rooms and small auditoriums," Green stated in the release.

The Chronicle (disclosure: me) is taking the trip alongside Green and the students. Welcome to the blog for the University's trip to New Hampshire in January 2008.