Monday, January 14, 2008

The Chronicle coverage continues

The Chronicle will continue to cover the 2008 campaign at its Election 2008 blog here. Please follow the link to find new and breaking coverage from The Chronicle as the election season develops.

Friday, January 11, 2008

The fallout: 'Change,' but of a different kind

Three days after the primary, the dust is still settling on the implications of the election. The polls and the pundits were dead wrong when predicting the results. The press, the pundits and even the candidates are all reeling from the votes of a record number of New Hampshirites.

Sen. Hillary Clinton was dead in the water in the final days before the primary, according to poll data, and the predictions of talking-heads on the 24-hour news networks, most flagrantly Chris Matthews of MSNBC. Some in the journalism community argue that an anti-Matthews vote turned the election in Clinton's favor, a position also seemingly taking hold at center-left political blog Talkingpointsmemo.com.

Some outlets are taking responsibility on behalf of the industry for their mistakes in coverage. The co-founders of Politico.com, John Harris and Jim VandeHei, ran an extensive mea culpa, in which they proclaim:

New Hampshire sealed it. The winner was Hillary Rodham Clinton, and the loser — not just of Tuesday's
primary but of the 2008 campaign cycle so far — was us.
"Us" is the community of reporters, pundits and prognosticators who so confidently — and so rashly — stake our reputations on the illusion that we understand politics and have special insight that allows us to predict the behavior of voters.

They say their publication Politico is not immune to this criticism, and in fact indulged in its trapdoors as well.

But the primary results have completely reshaped the race. No longer is Sen. Barack Obama the heir apparent for the Democratic party; he will have to earn it against a formidable foe in Clinton, and a pesky Sen. John Edwards, who placed second in Iowa and third in New Hampshire.

Clinton's victory is also attributed to a change in her campaign approach: a return to listening. She took hours of questions from voters, eventually resulting in her "Hillary moment," the so-called tearing-up scandal. Obama did not take questions from voters, instead relying on the inspiration of his message to rally supporters. And it likely hurt him.

The results from the Republican primary show a gigantic mess on that side of the ticket. Sen. McCain's victory shook up the Republican race for the nomination, again.

There are now five candidates that all have a chance at holding the mantle of frontrunner for the Republican nod: McCain, Gov. Mike Huckabee (Ark.), Gov. Mitt Romney (Mass.), Mayor Rudy Giuliani (N.Y.) and Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.).

No better example of this would be Thursday night's FOX News Republican debate in Charleston, S.C., when Thompson said “This is a battle for the heart and soul of the Republican Party and its future" in an attack on what he called Huckabee's "liberal" stances on foreign policy.

Michael Reagan, the son of President Ronald Reagan, explains how his father built the Republican coalition that is now "in shambles" since its creation during the late 1970s in an article on HumanEvents.com, a conservative magazine.

New Hampshire refused to rubber-stamp the results of the Iowa caucuses from five days before, and as a result, have molded the race for president in 2008 in its image.

The next battles occur in Michigan, Nevada, South Carolina and Florida, before the Super-Duper Tuesday on Feb. 5, where 23 states will select the nominee for President.

The Chronicle had a front-row seat for what is so far the pivotal battleground for the 2008 campaign. And it will again on Oct. 15, when the University hosts the final Presidential debate.

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

The morning after


A large Hillary Clinton sign is thrown in the trash on Elm Street in downtown Manchester, N.H.
(Samuel Rubenfeld/The Chronicle)



A garbageman disposes of the campaign signs left over from the primary that occurred the day before. (Samuel Rubenfeld/The Chronicle)

Photos: Obama concession rally in Nashua, N.H.

Hillary claims victory

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) claimed victory late Tuesday night in the New Hampshire primary.

She was notably alone on the stage tonight, in sharp contrast to her concession speech in Iowa, where she was surrounded by aides, including Madeline Albright and her husband, President Clinton.

"I come tonight with a very full heart," she said. "Tomorrow we're going to get up, roll up our sleeves and keep going."

The key line of the night: "I listened to you and in the process I found my own voice."

Tuesday, January 8, 2008

Video: Obama concedes

Obama concedes

Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) conceded the New Hampshire primary to Sen. Hillary Clinton after election returns showed a consistent and insurmountable lead. But he was still upbeat about his prospects.

"I am still fired up and ready to go," Obama said. "There is something happening in America."

His words were drowned out by cheering from supporters: "We want change!"

Obama's speech pivoted around his victory in Iowa, and he said he intends to place power into the hands of the American people. "You can be the new majority that can lead this country out of a long political darkness," he said.

In the speech, Obama attacked Clinton for her comments about him pandering with "false hope."

"We have been told we can't do this by a chorus of cynics," he said. "We have been told to pause for a reality check. We have been warned against offering false hope. But in the history of America there has never been anything false about hope."

Founder of the University's campaign group Students for Obama was upbeat about the campaign as well. "'Yes we can' kind of sums up the theme of the campaign," he said. "If you look at the polls from a month ago, we never would have expected to come within three points of Clinton."

Inside Obama rally headquarters in Nashua, N.H.

The Chronicle goes inside the Obama Primary Night rally headquarters in Nashua, N.H.

At this time, the race continues to be too close to call by the networks. The Associated Press has projected the race in favor of Clinton.

Edwards concedes

Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) concedes his third-place finish to Sens. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.), but he emphasizes, he's still in it.

"Tonight I congratulate Senator Clinton and Senator Obama," he said. "Two states down. 48 states to go."

He continued to hammer the populist theme on which he ran. "We have too many voices not heard in this democracy," he said. "The question is not what we aspire to: it is how we get there."

McCain accepts victory

Walking out to the Rocky theme song, McCain accepts victory in the New Hampshire primary.

At his victory speech, supporters chanted "Mac is back!"as he took the stage.

"We have sure shown them what a comeback looks like," he said. "We had just one strategy: to tell you what I believe."

Huck concedes

Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-Ark.) concedes to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), saying that he called McCain and congratulated him.

"But weeks ago I was nowhere near 6th place," he said. "Tonight we're coming out of here with continued momentum."

Update: "It's not about where we finished," Huckabee said. We're pretty happy about that."

Edwards third?

CNN projects Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) to place in third in the New Hampshire primary.

Romney concedes

Gov. Mitt Romney (R-Mass.) concedes New Hampshire primary to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.)

"I've got two silvers and one gold," Romney said. "Thank you Wyoming."

Ron Paul on Elm Street, Manchester, N.H.

The Chronicle ran into Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.) as he was being driven in a sedan on Elm Street in downtown Manchester this afternoon.

"I'm doing great," he said.

Asked what he will do if he does not fare well in the primary, "I'll keep going as long as the money keeps coming in," he said. "And the money keeps comin' in."

(With 17 percent of precincts reporting, Paul has 8.4 percent of the vote, placing him fifth, ahead of only former Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.) and Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.).)

NBC News reports McCain victory in New Hampshire primary

NBC News projects a victory for McCain in the New Hampshire primary.

Update: Fox agrees (via Politico.com). So does ABC (via Talkingpointsmemo.com).

Later update: CNN and the AP both agree as well (via nytimes.com political blog, The Caucus).

Live coverage

You can watch the results pour in live on MSNBC through here. (Must have Windows Media Player.)

Politico.com has streaming results. And you can get more detail, such as a breakdown by town, by clicking "See Detailed Results" at the top-right of the page.

Exit poll shows independents less influential in N.H. this time

Tease from ABC News (via Politico.com) shows partisans driving the turnout today in New Hampshire.

And NBC News reports independents constituted more of the Democratic primary vote than did Republicans.

Poll: Which Democrat can survive a loss?

Poll: Who can survive NH loss?







Status:





Also want to create a poll? Click here

Photo: Voters waiting in line

Sample ballots

The following are sample ballots filed by New Hampshire voters in today's primary:

Republican: link
Democrat: link

Voters speak at a polling place in Manchester, N.H.

In front of polling place Ward 10, the Parker-Varney school on 223 James Pollock Dr. in Manchester, voters had plenty to say about the candidates they chose.

Video: Introduction, The voters speak

Record turnout expected

Indications are for a record turnout today in New Hampshire's primary. Springtime weather, with near-record highs in the low 60s, are contributing to an expected higher-than normal turnout.

NYTimes.com has some detail here.

Update: Politico.com reports polling places feared losing ballots through the day.

'It's a small world after all'--just ask Huck and Rudy

Two presidential candidates literally bump into each other as they campaign last-minute during primary day. Read the anecdote here.

The primary begins

The first polling places have already cast their ballots in today's Presidential primary. Dixville Notch, a tiny hamlet in northern New Hampshire casts its ballots at the stroke of midnight on Primary day. Since 1968, it has accurately chosen the Republican nominee for president in every election cycle.

This year's results:


Democrats
Senator Barack Obama 7
John Edwards - 2
Gov. Bill Richardson - 1
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton - 0

Republicans
Senator John McCain - 4
Mitt Romney - 2
Rudolph Giuliani - 1
Fred Thompson - 0
Ron Paul - 0


This could be an indicator for the rest of the day to come, stay tuned.

No time for Romney

As a result of waiting for hours to see Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.), students missed the opportunity to meet Gov. Mitt Romney (R-Mass.), who campaigned in an Elks lodge in Salem.

The students on the trip continued back to Hofstra Monday evening, arriving in Hempstead sometime around 10 p.m.

The Chronicle, however has decided to stay through the primary election, and will continue to post through Tuesday night on location.

Stay tuned.

Clinton campaign stop in photos

Some students left out of an event by Clinton in Dover, N.H.

Some students were shut out of a campaign event by Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y) in a community center in Dover, N.H., in which a gymnasium on the third floor was "filled to capacity," according to campaign aides. The event showed Clinton ratcheting up her attacks on her chief rivals, Sens. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and John Edwards (D-N.C.).

The capacity for the gym was 590, and that is not determined by the size of the room, but rather by the size of the available exits, according to a fire marshal standing at the door.

The gym appeared to be only about three-quarters full, and much of the space was occupied by the traveling press corps. The students were at first not even allowed into a cafeteria overflow room, but some were allowed in later to hear audio of the event.

Those that missed seeing her were told that she may come downstairs and make an appearance, but after waiting for an hour, aides said she would meet them outside by her campaign bus.

Students continued to wait for another half hour, just to see her walk out the door of the building. She just walked by, past protesters holding signs for Reps. Ron Paul (R-Tex.) and Dennis Kucinich (D-Oh.) yelling "No more corporate candidates," and onto her bus.

During the event itself, Clinton lit into her rivals early and often. At the debate on Saturday night, "my two leading opponents were finally asked questions," she said. "I got tired of debating 15 times against myself."

Referring again to the debates, she added: "When my opponent says he passed a patient's bill of rights that never actually passed, that isn't making change."

Retired Gen. Wesley Clark, a presidential candidate in 2004, was at the event, and spoke with reporters prior to Clinton's appearance. He said she was confident about Tuesday's primary.

Asked about whether her funds would dry up if she doesn't win, Clark said "Hillary's going to do great in New Hampshire."

"There's no problem with funding," he added.

A state senator details the history and significance of the NH primary

Sen. Lou D'Allesandro (D-Manchester) is the go-to guy for candidates learning the lay of the land in the N.H. primary. Students met with him in the House chambers of the state capitol building early Monday morning.

He discussed his own involvement with the primaries, including an event that students thought seemed almost too crazy to be true: shut out of an event (due to capacity) including Sen. John F. Kennedy at Dartmouth college, he snuck around and climbed through a window, jumped in and found, as he was crouching, an outstretched hand.

That hand belonged to John F. Kennedy.

D'Allesandro has served five terms in the N.H. senate. He has endorsed Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) for President, but said that Sen. Joe Biden (D-Del.) was the best candidate in the field, before he dropped out.

He spoke about the importance of retail politics in N.H., where candidates meet voters face-to-face in families' living rooms, or at restaurants, and have to prove the worth of a vote for them.

However, "85 percent of the state's population lives within 35 miles of Manchester," so candidates are less likely to campaign in the northern parts of the state, he said.

Monday, January 7, 2008

Day 2 in photos

Video: Kucinich on Public Access TV

Kucinich on Public Access television in Manchester, N.H.

In their last event of the day, students watched a taping of public access television by Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Oh.).

The show, a careful analysis of "The Bill of Rights" for Manchester Community Access Media (MCAM-TV), allowed for Kucinich, and two panelist supporters, to establish a nuanced argument for impeachment.

"It is our duty, not just our right, to move forward with impeachment if we see our laws, or international treaties, being violated," Kucinich said, receiving applause from the studio audience.

Kucinich also criticized "corporate media" for shutting him out of the ABC news, which he derided as "Disney Corp. TV," debate Saturday night at St. Anselm College.

Sunday, January 6, 2008

University Graduate student Lauren Simma reaction to Obama

Second-year graduate student Lauren Simma does not believe Obama is the correct choice for President.

Reaction to Obama

Late poll results

New polls out tonight indicate a major shift in momentum. Obama has taken a 10-point lead, according to a CNN/WMUR poll, and a 12-point lead in a USA Today/Gallup poll.

The margin between Republicans is much closer. McCain is up by four points in the USA Today poll

Newsday picks up on trip, and Chronicle blog

Newsday's Spin Cycle political blog has picked up on the University's trip to New Hampshire. Find the post here

Video: Obama rally in Salem, N.H.

Obama hours late to a rally in Salem, NH

The students waited more than three hours to hear from Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), but he spoke to an auditorium filled to capacity in Salem High School in Salem, N.H.

The overflow crowd packed into a gym down the hall to hear the audio from the 30-minute stump speech.
Obama was two hours late to the event, which was scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. He began speaking at about 6 p.m.

He apologized for his lateness, saying “it was partially my fault.”

“I’m running because of what Dr. King called ‘the fierce urgency of now,”’ Obama said. “The American people are responding to a call for change.”

Obama’s speech turned a few students in his favor, according to a voice vote taken on the bus after the speech.

But not all students approved of Obama’s performance.

“He was a good speaker. He convinced me that he was passionate and genuine, but there were holes in his speech,” Loretta Jacobs, a freshman special education major said. “I think he did not go into specifics.”

Freshman Jeff Ahking disagreed. “Those people were lacking hope,” he said.

Public reaction to McCain

Outside the rally:

Students pose questions at Town Hall With John McCain

Two University students asked Sen. John McCain questions during a Town Hall meeting in Salem, N.H. in which McCain faced protests from activists supporting more funding for AIDS-related causes.

The students' questions focused on issues foreign policy in the Middle East. One student, Roy Seter, a senior political science major, asked about the massive killing of Armnenians during World War 1 that the hands of the Ottoman turks which the United States has refused to declare a genocide.

McCain did not directly address the Armenian genocide, saying he "did not vote for the measure" when it came up for a vote in the Senate, but he added: "I will be glad to condemn genocide wherever it takes place."

The other student asked about McCain's policy towards Iran, to which he responded by accusing the country of harboring and supporting terrorists.

University students were not the only active participants in the Town Hall meeting. Activists stood up yelling "People are dying! You are not trying!" as they held up paper signs saying "50 million people die of global AIDS."

The protest became heated as many holding signs were escorted out of the event. As they left, McCain supporters cheered "Mac is back!"

McCain delivered his stump speech, emphasizing his support for a line-item veto to cut spending on pet projects for districts, known as pork barrel spending. "I'm going to veto every pork-barrel project," he said.

McCain took a question from a youthful voter asking what he would do for young people.

"I'll do climate change because of your generation, not because of mine," he said.

Video: McCain at a Town Hall in Salem, N.H.

Video: President of Temple Adash Yeshurun 'impressed' by Richardson

Video: Richardson supports state of Israel

Video: Gravel in the temple

Video: Duncan Hunter

Forum in a Manchester, N.H. temple

Temple Adash Yeshurun in Manchester was the site of a forum for candidates, and students filed along the walls to hear from candidates not getting as much airtime in the mainstream press.

Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.), Gov. Bill Richardson (D-N.M.) and former Sen. Mike Gravel (D- Ala.) all made their case to a full reception area in the synagogue. An aide for Sen. Hillary Clinton named Ann Lewis made her case as well.

All of the candidates, as well as Clinton's aide, stood firmly in support of Israel. However, Gravel differed in his approach.

He voiced his support for the American Peace Now movement, which advocates giving up the West Bank for peace. Gravel said he would bring peace to the Middle East no matter what the cost.

"Don't worry about the details; I'll force it through by will," he said. "It is the people that are gonna take control of the peace process, not the leaders."

All of the candidates were asked what they would do first upon being elected president.

"The first thing I would do [as President] is get out of Iraq," said Richardson, the candidate appearing here with the highest poll numbers and profile.

Hunter appeared first, and advocated building a fence along the border with Mexico.

Gravel, who appeared later, disagreed with Hunter's advocacy for the fence. "I would blow only three things up if I were elected president: that fence along Mexico, Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib," he said.

NH GOP pulls support of Fox News forum

The New Hampshire state Republican party pulled its support for a forum on FOX News in protest of the network's decision not to include Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) and Rep. Duncan Hunter (Calif.).

Paul's campaign released a statement approving the decision, and the story got a full writeup at Politico.com.

Watching debates on television

The students watched back-to-back debates sponsored by ABC News and Facebook at the Radisson. Televisions were tuned to the debates in a large plaza room. Food and refreshments were served, and students watched the debates along with hotel patrons.

The hotel also had televisions tuned to the debates in the lobby, and students congregated there as well.

The back-to-back debates, moderated by Charles Gibson, presented a unique format designed to allow the candidates to address each other, and each debate was successful in creating some measure of conflict amongst the candidates.

Saturday, January 5, 2008

Panels in Manchester AND Clinton's odd labor rally

After the Edwards rally, the journey continued to a panel discussion by the National Review Online about the New Hampshire primaries at the Radisson in downtown Manchester.

Many of the students appeared bored and restless, and they wandered around the Radisson looking for some political action.

Students stumbled upon a closed-door union rally in the next large room, but were denied access because they weren't union members. Unions represented included the Teamsters, the International Bricklayers union and AFSCME.

The star attraction was former President Bill Clinton, who spoke for ten minutes to resounding applause from a capacity crowd about getting out the vote for his wife, Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.).

It was odd to see such tremendous support for the man who signed the North American Free Trade Agreement into law, since NAFTA was so harshly opposed by the labor movement. But the voters clapped and hollered away anyway.

Host of MSNBC's Hardball, Chris Matthews, attributed it to a show of support for the party, as opposed to directly for the candidate. "They are all pro-Democrat," he said.

Edwards photo slideshow, from Lebanon, N.H.

Edwards in Lebanon, N.H.

At Lebanon High School, University students got their first taste of what political scientists call "retail politics."

Edwards: 'We Have a Fight'


Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) was more than 50 minutes late to a scheduled event at the high school cafeteria which was filled to capacity. Edwards spoke to a second room filled with people prior to walking into the cafeteria.

He spoke for about twenty-five minutes, delivering a stump speech completely focused on domestic policy and on his underdog status.

"They told me we couldn't do it, but we did it," he said, referring to his second-place finish in Iowa behind Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.)

Edwards' message struck a populist tone; he spoke extensively about how the middle class is being squeezed by powerful interests in Washington, including the pharmaceutical, insurance, gas and oil lobbies.

"Haven't we found that enough is enough?" he asked.

Edwards delivered a thinly veiled attack on Obama's intention to bring all parties involved to a big table: "I dont think they'll sit at a table and voluntarily give their power away."

Edwards' aides emphaized how he was far outspent in the contest, and questioned the effectiveness of the spending.

"In Iowa, Obama got 17 delegates, we got 16 and Hillary got 15," said Joe Trippi, a chief adviser to the Edwards campaign. "Was all that extra spending worth the one delegate?"

Students were unimpressed by Edwards message. A voice poll taken on one bus after the rally found no new supporters of the Edwards campaign.

No students said they were Edwards supporters going in, either.

"The speech was lacking a certain pizzazz that you would think a former trial lawyer would have," said Nick Bond, a junior and president of the College Democrats.

The Bus trip and Internet troubles in Lebanon, N.H.

Five hours on a bus, and the students finally got to their first campaign event, a rally for John Edwards at Lebanon High School in Lebanon, N.H.

The buses arrived at approximately 1 p.m., after stopping for sandwiches. The event was scheduled for 1:15 p.m.

Lebanon High School was not equipped for the Internet access required for the national press corps, and the campaign struggled to get its own "soapbox" network online, as the press corps struggled to file their stories on location.

Friday, January 4, 2008

'Change' is more than a six-letter word

It defined the results of the Iowa caucuses Thursday night.

Both anti-establishment candidates won their respective party caucuses in Iowa. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) reaped the benefits of a record turnout of more than 239,000 participants in the Democratic caucuses throughout Iowa, including capturing a shocking 57 percent of caucus-goers between the ages of 17 and 29, according to entrance polls.

Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-Ark.), a former Baptist minister, won the Republican caucuses by nine percentage points over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, due in large part to 60 percent of the participants identifying themselves as "evangelical," according to entrance polls.

Both candidates have defined their campaigns on the theme of "change," with Obama advocating unity over partisan rancor and Huckabee emphasizing the need for Republicans to revolutionize the base of their party.

“They said this country was too divided, too disillusioned to ever come together around a common purpose,” Obama said in his victory speech Thursday night in Des Moines. “But on this January night, at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn’t do.”

The effects of the victories by Obama and Huckabee reverberated through the campaign immediately. Two Democratic hopefuls, Sens. Joe Biden (Del.) and Chris Dodd (Conn.) dropped out of the race. Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.), the candidate seen as representing the establishment, finished third right behind former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.), and is now reeling from the effects of losing her role as the assumed-frontrunner for the nomination.

Both Clinton and Obama far outspent Edwards in Iowa, but Edwards focused his efforts almost solely in Iowa, spending the four years since his vice-presidential candidacy building an organization there, feeding the notion that if he didn't win in Iowa, his candidacy would be finished. Edwards vowed to fight on into New Hampshire Thursday night.

Romney, who had invested heavily in Iowa in both money and time, saw his commanding lead in the state shrink by a surging Huckabee as more and more Iowa voters found him a credible enough candidate. Romney aired many advertisements attacking Huckabee, especially on the issue of illegal immigration, and some pundits believe that Iowa caucus-goers rebuked him for it, because candidates who have gone negative in Iowa historically do not perform well on caucus night.

Romney has also invested heavily in New Hampshire, and his candidacy may be over if he does not win the primary there.

Huckabee's victory in Iowa is likely to cause a bounce in his standing in New Hampshire, but it is unknown how large the bounce will be, since New Hampshire voters are far more secular than their Iowan counterparts.

Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, who finished a dismal sixth in the caucuses, even being soundly defeated by fringe candidate Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.), had ignored Iowa for the entire campaign, instead focusing on the larger states whose primaries are mostly on Super-Duper Tuesday, Feb. 5, a strategy that carries high risks, according to political analysts.

All of the fallout of the Iowa caucuses turns around quickly in the sprint to the New Hampshire primary, which occurs on Tuesday, Jan. 8.

Stay tuned.